Future for Israel unclear.
Over 3,500 killed in ongoing violence.
Syrian President Bashar al-Assad has unleashed more deadly violence against protesters this week, but both Arab leaders and Israel are beginning to assess what kind of Syria may emerge if and when his regime collapses.
According to an Israeli military official, the assessment in Jerusalem is that Assad may last a few more months but will eventually be driven from power. The regime has lost any claim of legitimacy after slaughtering over 3,500 people but failing to crush the opposition.
His fall could pave the way for even greater sectarian violence or even civil war between the majority Sunni, the ruling Alawites, the Shi’ites, the Kurds and others. Israel worries especially about control of Syrian chemical and biological weapons which may fall out the hands of a responsible actor. Russia already assesses that the country is close to civil war.
Arab states are also giving up on Assad, upping their pressure on him to step down immediately.
“What is happening in Syria is very sad to all of us,” Qatar’s foreign minister, Sheik Hamad Bin Jassim Jabr al-Thani, told reporters in Rabat where the Arab League was holding an emergency summit on Wednesday evening. “We must take difficult decisions and force Syria to respect its obligations.” Qatar now holds the rotating presidency of the body.
“We should stop wasting time while people are getting killed,” he added.
On Thursday, army defectors in northwestern Syria attacked a pro-government youth group office while security forces also arrested dozens during raids in Harasta, the location of the air intelligence base outside Damascus that was attacked a day earlier by the Free Syrian Army, a band of military defectors the regime.
Inspired by the successful revolutions against longtime autocrats in Tunisia and Egypt, Syrians began protesting in late January and the unrest escalated into a full-fledged uprising by March. The demonstrations, which started in the city of Daraa and soon spread throughout the country, have sought the replacement of the autocratic Assad regime with a democratic government.
Assad and his security force responded by occupying many of the restive cities and firing indiscriminately on citizens, according to the UN and local human rights groups. The UN on Nov. 8 said the death toll had passed 3,500.
The Arab League last Saturday suspended Syria’s membership until it allowed an observer force into the country and stopped the killing. But the League backtracked on the decision Thursday when it extended the deadline for Syria to accept its plan for another three days.
In another blow to the regime, Jordan’s King Abdullah, called Monday for Assad to step down. Turkey, a country that under its Islamist government counted Damascus as a close regional ally, has also now become increasingly critical of Assad’s response to protests and has joined international sanctions on the Syrian energy sector.
“Turkey’s policy on this issue is open and clear. We will stand by the people’s just demands and we will mobilize the necessary regional and international platforms to counter this Syrian pressure,” Foreign Minister Ahmet Davutoglu told the Turkish parliament.
Meanwhile, Russia and China- longtime business partners of the Assad regime- continue to take a softer stance. Russian foreign minister Sergei Lavrov said on Thursday that the violence resembled a “civil war” more than a crackdown on protesters, while a China foreign ministry spokesperson said they hoped that “all relevant parties will work together” to implement the Arab League Plan
Iran is still standing by Assad, a key ally and has sent military and financial aid while training Syrian troops in crackdown techniques.
